Recent attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, coupled with missile attacks in February on areas the pope will visit, have led some Vatican observers to question the safety of the papal visit.

Cases of COVID-19 have tripled to nearly 5,000 in the country in the past month.

While Francis and his entourage have been vaccinated against COVID-19, journalists questioned the wisdom of holding Masses and other appearances. The pope is expected to attract large crowds creating potential super-spreader events.

Vatican spokesperson Matteo Bruni told reporters that the pope will not be encountering large crowds in Iraq. He called Pope Francis' determination to make the trip "an act of love for this land, this country, and its people."

Admitting that acts of love "might be a bit extreme," Bruni emphasized that the pope is being realistic. He will ride in a bulletproof car during the trip, casting aside the usual open "popemobile". Social distancing will be enforced throughout the pope's Iraq visit.

Francis "wishes to be near Christians and those who suffered and hopes the trip will open the door to the future for the Iraqi people," Bruni said.

Iraqis return the sentiment, according to Davide Bernocchi, the country representative for Iraq for the charitable group Catholic Relief Services. "Iraqis understand that the pope is making a brave gesture by coming here," Bernocchi told Religion News Service. "Given the safety situation and COVID, this visit means so much for this country and this people," he added.

Before 2013, there were roughly 1.4 million Christians living in this area, but following the rise of the Islamic State in the region, the number fell to just over 300,000. Those who braved the political and social instability in Iraq are now left with a struggling economy and discrimination.

"Christians represent a traumatized community. They need someone to show them the way toward the future once more," Bernocchi said.

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They have expressed concern about a sharp rise in coronavirus infections and a fragile health system in the country.

There is also the unavoidable likelihood that Iraqis will crowd to see him.

No one wants to tell Pope Francis to call off the trip. And the Iraqi government has every interest in showing off its relative stability by welcoming the first pope to the birthplace of Abraham.

The March 5-8 trip is expected to provide a sorely-needed spiritual boost to Iraq's beleaguered Christians.

It will also further the Vatican's bridge-building efforts with the Muslim world.

But from a purely epidemiological standpoint, as well as the public health message it sends, a papal trip to Iraq amid a global pandemic is not advisable, health experts say.

Vatican ambassador to Iraq tests positive for COVID

Their concerns were reinforced with the news Sunday that the Vatican ambassador to Iraq tested positive for COVID-19 and was self-isolating.

He is the main point person for the trip and would have escorted Francis to all his appointments.

In an email to The Associated Press, the embassy said Archbishop Mitja Leskovar's symptoms were mild and that he was continuing to prepare for Francis' visit.

"I just don't think the visit is a good idea," said Dr. Navid Madani, virologist and founding director of the Center for Science Health Education in the Middle East and North Africa at Harvard Medical School's Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.

The Iranian-born Madani co-authored an article in The Lancet last year on the region's uneven response to COVID-19. It noted that Iraq, Syria and Yemen were poorly placed to cope. They are still struggling with extremist insurgencies and have 40 million people who need humanitarian aid.

Madani said Middle Easterners are known for their hospitality.

He cautioned that the enthusiasm among Iraqis of welcoming a peace-maker like Francis to a neglected, war-torn part of the world might lead to inadvertent violations of virus control measures.

"This could potentially lead to unsafe or superspreading risks," she said.

Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an infectious disease control expert at the University of Exeter College of Medicine, concurred.

"It's a perfect storm for generating lots of cases which you won't be able to deal with," he said.

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