But there are some contributing factors that might not have had the attention they deserve.

The demography of New Zealand is changing, with major implications for rugby, especially for player participation.

The impacts of immigration and a growing diversity help explain why rugby is losing ground as a sport in Auckland and other cities where immigrants and ethnic minorities reside, but there is a very different reason in the regions.

The numbers playing rugby nationally still look strong, but the arrival and success of girls' and women's rugby has tended to mask the challenges of maintaining a player base.

Take secondary schools. In 2000, rugby still dominated school sports, with nearly 31,000 players. By 2020, there were 6500 fewer players, a drop of 20 per cent, and the sport was third in the numbers playing, while rugby sevens had grown and involved 5000 players.

In the same period, basketball had grown by almost 50 per cent to become the second most popular sport, while the participation in football had grown to nearly 21,000, supplemented by futsal (7000 players).

By 2020, netball had dropped slightly in numbers, but was the most popular sport, while cricket had collapsed (nearly 50 per cent fewer were playing in 2020 than in 2000).

These figures only reflect the numbers who played a sport for their school. Those who play the sport informally or non-competitively (neighbourhood basketball, badminton) or play for a club rather than a school (football) are not included.

Rugby too rough for newcomers?

What's happening? Rugby has to compete in a crowded leisure landscape, and there are reputational issues associated with the physicality of the game.

But the changing composition of the New Zealand population is also playing its part.

Immigration has been a major factor in the past 20 years, especially since 2013. We have added about 400,000 to the population from net migration gains - and these communities are not playing rugby. Look at Auckland.

The city is home to a third of all New Zealanders, and more than 40 per cent are immigrants. Thirty per cent are members of Asian communities.

These communities are especially apparent in the school-age population. And they are contributing to the decline in rugby numbers. Rugby participation at secondary schools experienced a 29 per cent drop in one two-year period alone, and a 20 per cent drop in the number of teams.

This is not simply confined to Auckland. In one large Wellington school with 1700 students, there were three rugby teams in 2020.

By 2018, rugby was not even in the top 20 sporting and leisure activities among all Aucklanders surveyed. Football, basketball, golf, table tennis and tennis were.

A decade ago, we were asked to explore the question of "why?". The answers were relatively straightforward: these new immigrant and ethnic minority communities placed much more emphasis on education, they had no prior experience, knowledge or interest in sports like rugby, and they were concerned at how "rough" the sport was.

In the smaller regional centres and rural areas, the numbers available to play rugby are in decline. The predominant reason is the ageing of these populations. In large parts of New Zealand's hinterland, the proportion aged over 65 now outnumbers those aged 15 or less.

There are a lot of ex-rugby players and supporters - but only a small pool of those interested in the sport or able to play. One indicator of population stagnation or decline has been the closure of almost 200 state schools in regional New Zealand since 2000.

In the Waitaki district, home of Richie McCaw, 14 schools have closed since 1990, while a number of others have been amalgamated. Where do the rugby players come from in these districts?

The combination of fewer school-age children and young adult out-migration, combined with the arrival of migrant workers, is simply not providing a sustainable player base.

A glance at the traditional print media or Sky TV, with their extensive coverage of rugby, tends to mask what is happening, both in participation and interest. Have a look online, or at the media that serve ethnic minorities in New Zealand, and a very different picture emerges of what sports attract interest and participation.

A lot has been made about the investment in grassroots and regional rugby that might be possible with the injection of private equity funds.

But surely there is an equally important issue that derives from the changing demography of this country. New Zealand Rugby is aware of the issues but has struggled to engage a younger and more ethnically diverse New Zealand.

• Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley is a sociologist at Massey University's College of Humanities and Social Sciences and the author of The New New Zealand. Facing Demographic Disruption (Massey University Press, 2020).
• First published by Stuff. Republished with permission.

An average of 1.71 children per woman in New Zealand is well below population replacement level and threatens economic growth and the country's social balance and structure.

Population replacement and growth is only coming by way of immigration.

The claims come in "Families: Ever Fewer or No Children, How Worried Should We Be?" - a discussion paper from Family First NZ.

The report's author is Lindsay Mitchell, and in the report she looks at the reasons behind falling fertility, and discusses what might influence future trends.

In the report she attributes the reduction in fertility to

• Government policy
• Better educated females
• Increased female participation in the work force
• Economic pressure
• Pressure from environmentalists to have fewer children
• Ineffective policy interventions to incourage fertility.

As well as looking at the historical context of family size in New Zealand, the report also examines also reviews other countries' efforts to incentivise fertility.

"To date, New Zealand has been complacent about its total fertility rate.

"Firstly because it fluctuated around replacement rate for a long period, and secondly, it was higher than most other OECD countries.'

The report shows that New Zealand's fertility trend is beginning to resemble many other European and Asian nations struggling to boost their fertility rates.

"As New Zealand's fertility rate falls progressively further below population replacement level, the need to address the issue becomes more urgent," Mitchell points out.

"Without population replacement or growth, economies decline," she writes.

Mitchell point sout that a nation's strength lies in its young: their energy, innovation, risk-taking and entrepreneurship and that new blood drives the exchange of ideas and experimentation.

"If these attributes aren't home-grown, they have to be imported," she says.

Looking at the big picture Mitchell sounds a warning, saying that single person households are the fastest growing household type in New Zealand.

"I increasingly people are facing old-age with few or no family support," she writes.

Mitchell says the matter of fertility is critical to New Zealand's future and she encourages people to feature the topic in public and private conversations.

"Ultimately, whether or not people choose to have a child or children is a highly personal matter, but they shouldn't be denied balanced information to help them decide."

• Source: Family First

Papua New Guinea does not need to promote family planning or practices such as contraception and abortion," said Fr Giorgio Licini, secretary of the conference's Commission for Social Communications.

He said that the annual population growth rate of about three percent, similar to many developing countries but far ahead of the ageing Western nations, is not a problem for the country.

"With a population which is still limited and with considerable internal resources, [PNG] can easily plan to become a country of 30-40 million people by the end of the century, with a much stronger and diversified economy," Fr Licini said.

Last month Radio Australia reported that a family planning push was underway in Papua New Guinea to address the issue of maternal deaths

Source

• asopa
• Image: Radio Australia

Sir Ieremia Tabai, who is the chairman of the committee campaigning for smaller families, is encouraging the people of Kiribati to have two or three children.

As overcrowding and unemployment in Tarawa and Betio are serious problems, Sir Ieremia says bigger families are also affecting the health of women and their children.

In July Dr Laurent Zessler, the head of the United Nations Population Fund in the Pacific, had talks with the government of Kiribati and said progress was being made on tackling the issue.

He says despite some opposition to family planning efforts by the Catholic church there have been positive developments.

"Different religious groups, including the Catholic church, understand that this population growth, rapid population growth, is very worrisome for the future of Kiribati.

"I would say that in practical terms there is an understanding, there is not opposition that would impair the government to carry out the activities related to better access to contraceptives."

Last year Kiribati Bishop Paul Mea said women in Kiribati have no right to use birth control pills, saying in Catholicism God is put ahead of everything

Source

• Radio New Zealand International
• Cook Islands News
• Radio New Zealand International
• Image: climatefriend.files.wordpress.com

It has set up a group called HOPE to take its message about the impact of population growth to local communities.

The Catholic Church in Kiribati has several times voiced its opposition to family planning programmes.

Kiribati is a country that has a 50 per cent Catholic population.

In 2013 Radio New Zealand international quoted Bishop Paul Mea as saying that women in Kiribati have no right to use birth control pills.

Other churches in Kiribati are backing the Ministry of Health's call.

In 2013 Family Planning New Zealand completed a cost-benefit analysis of increasing access to family planning in Kiribati.

The project was funded by the New Zealand aid programme.

According to the Family Planning researcher Jacob Daube, a cost-benefit analysis of increasing access to family planning in Kiribati stated that there is likely to be a substantial return on every dollar spent on family planning in Kiribati and fertility rates would also fall.

He said that would mean public sector savings of about US$23 for every dollar spent or the equivalent of US$17 million over 15 years.

Right to life New Zealand complained about an interview with Daube aired on Radio New Zealand in November 2013.

The basis of the complaint was that it failed to make a reasonable effort to present significant points of view, either in the same programme or in other programmes within the period of current interest.

In the complaint Right to Life New Zealand contended the programme featured members of the international population control movement and their intention to change the culture in Kiribati to accept contraception and abortion.

It acknowledged that Kiribati has a serious demographic problem but said it is not going to be solved with contraception, sterilisation and abortion.

It acknowledged that, at the end of the programme, it was briefly mentioned that the Catholic Church was opposed to contraception but there was no explanation of the reasons for the opposition.

The head of HOPE, Dr Teatao Tiira, says the community needs to understand the data and the effects a growing population has.

Kiribati has a population of just over 100,000, with half of them living around Tarawa and Betio.

There are about 2,000 births a year and a natural death rate of about 400 to 500 annually.

Source

• Island Business
• Pacific Islands Report
• RightToLife.ogr.nz
• Image: vuelaviajes.com

What follows is Giorgio's original article.

POPULATION INCREASE NOT A NIGHTMARE

By Fr Giorgio Licini PIME - Catholic Reporter PNG

The recently released 2011 census figures point at a consistent population increase in Papua New Guinea as in many developing countries. The opposite trend is taking place in western societies now experiencing an aging population and decreasing number of children after a consistent growth following World War II. It may be interesting to notice how in their time they tackled the issue and what PNG can learn from their experience. There are at least three areas of interest.

The first refers to a massive development and maintenance of infrastructures. The works must be done properly. Under a mantle of road asphalt in Europe there are 30-50 centimeters of hard rocks. That way it is very hard for the pavement to just disappear and give way to deep pot holes. In a poorer country like the Philippines most of the roads are cemented. A technique that may be more expensive, but for a solution that lasts forever. Besides practical decisions, however, what really matters is that infrastructure is funded and really put in place based on a long term national plan. Massive corruption and diversion of funds is incompatible with national development.

A second area of concern is certainly education. While the western population was growing in the past decades, every child had to be in school. As often happens, an educated population becomes much less reproductive; to the point that some countries now worry about generation imbalance and decreasing number of children.

Job opportunities and houses also need to be provided. In a modern and urban set up fertility rates decrease when people start engaging in a more meaningful social life and become busy not only with work, but also with cultural, social and recreational activities.

Does family planning, contraception and the tragedy of abortion also contribute to population control? Certainly! But does Papua New Guinea need to rely on such practices to achieve its goal? It really doesn't seem to be the case. With still limited population and considerable internal resources and external help, PNG can easily plan to be a country of 30-40 million people by the end of the century, with a much stronger and diversified economy, just by stamping out corruption, instilling a better sense of discipline in its citizens and working hard for education, infrastructural development, and a crime free society.

Papua New Guinea has more natural resources than any European country. It is slightly smaller than France and bigger that Germany, which have 65 and 81 million people respectively. Papua New Guinea has only seven-eight million. Population will certainly increase. It will be a problem to address, but not a nightmare!

Source

• Supplied by Fr Giorgi Licini
• Image: Asopa

Licini told the news agency Agenzia Fides that the increase in population in Papua New Guinea is not a nightmare, but it can result in an encouraging prospect for growth and social and economic progress of the country.

The data of the 2011 census, published recently, show a lower rate of population growth of about 3.1 % per annum. Papua New Guinea is in line with many developing countries, while in the West there is a gradual ageing of the population.

Licini, said is not a problem or a "spectrum" for the country, as some observers argue, following the neo-Malthusian ideologies. "PNG does not need to promote family planning or practices such as contraception and abortion."

With a population which is still limited and with considerable internal resources, PNG can easily plan to become a country of 30-40 million people by the end of the century, with a much stronger and diversified economy", he said.

Source

• Agenzia Fides
• Image: Asopa

"The way to interpret this is that the laws are still in effect, but the judges and the policemen have all been fired," said Wang Feng, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing. "Soon the laws will also change."

In a move that may signal a future weakening of the policy, the State Council, China's Cabinet, said it proposed to merge the existing Ministry of Health with the National Population and Family Planning Commission.

"Saying that there is no change is a measure to save face and a recognition that they can't announce all the change in one day," said Wang.

"The National Population and Family Planning Commission was created for a single mandate of controlling population growth and now they no longer have that, those powers have been dissolved.

"What the government is doing is a major political move and they cannot make or announce all the policy changes that go along with it in one day. They know they can't dismantle everything all at once. It's going to take some time.

"It will not take long, however, for change to come. Leaders are aware of the changing demographics. The one-child policy has taken a toll on the labor force and has jeopardised the future economy….

"The family planning commission employs more than 500,000 people and it will be difficult to change this bureaucracy and what it has done for so many years.

"The people employed within the system are going to be redundant and many of them will likely leave, enabling a shifting of resources to the Ministry of Health. Those resources can be used to invest in reproductive health," Wang said.

"This is going to be an extremely difficult process."

Sources:

Xinhua

Wall Street Journal

Image: China Mike

According to Catholic Education's executive director, Stephen Elder, families are choosing Catholic schools because of their own experiences in the system, because they like the faith and morals, and because of an inclusive community that embraces discipline and academic performance.

Continue reading

The call was made by Papua New Guinea MP Dame Carol Kidu who was among several Pacific politicians attending the New Zealand Parliamentarians' Group on Population and Development's annual meeting in Wellington. The focus of the meeting this year is the sexual and reproductive health and rights of Pacific adolescents.

"The religious conservatism, we've got to work at it subtly and gently, I know, but we have to move fairly fast because there are people dying, there are people dying of HIV who should not be dying because they're too ashamed to go and get treatment - it shouldn't be happening, young people, good young people," said Kidu.

A New Zealand politician attending the meeting said there is a risk of a Pacific population explosion if Pacific Island teenagers are not given better sexuality education and access to sexual health and reproductive services.

"We know that 56 per cent of the population in Pacific island countries is under 25 and the next generation or two there will be a doubling of that population and quite frankly the countries cannot sustain that," says Dr Jackie Blue.

She says that any sexuality education occurring in Pacific Island countries is done "in a very haphazard and patchy way" and there is no standardised sort of format or information that's given out.

Dr Blue is a National Party list MP and chairwoman of the New Zealand Parliamentarians' Group on Population and Development.

The NZPPD provides a forum for New Zealand parliamentarians to engage and act on international population and development issues. It is a cross party group, with currently 45 members representing just under 40 percent of all New Zealand MPs.

Source

• Radio Australia Network News
• Radio New Zealand International
• Image: MoviesPad.com

Papua New Guinea's Minister for Health and HIV, Jamie Maxtone-Graham, has called for proper plans and strategies for population control to cater for the increasing population in the country. Quoting reports from a demographic health survey carried out in 2006, Maxtone-Graham said the population was experiencing substantial growth with a high fertility rate of 4.3%.

And in Port Vila unwanted pregnancies among high school students and the need to upgrade health facilities in Vanuatu were just two of the many population control related issues which dominated discussions at a two-day United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)-supported retreat.

Retreat participants ended the consultation with a draft work plan for 2012 to build on the progress achieved so far in this area, which had included a tour of health centers in rural areas to inform their advocacy role both at parliamentary and grassroots level.

The role of parents, communities, traditional leaders, schools and churches in the communication of reproductive health-related information to children were also passionately discussed at the retreat.

The retreat was organised primarily for the members of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Social Policy to dialogue with their stakeholders including state agencies, civil society and traditional and faith-based leadership.

Source:

• Island Business
• Pacific Scoop
• Image: Travelpod

In the press release, issued on 3 May this year UNFPA Executive Director, Dr. Osotimehin said "the population projections underscore the urgent need to provide safe and effective family planning to the 215 million women who lack it. We must invest the resources to enable women and men to have the means to exercise their human right to determine the number and spacing of their children," he said.

However, according to Safiye Cagar, director of the information and external relations division at UNFPA, the Catholic Church's ban on the use of contraception is not to blame for the population boom because most Catholics ignore it.

"In Catholic countries like Italy, Spain or Malta people are still using contraceptives like condoms, so the Church ban is not having an impact.

"Besides, the population growth in Catholic countries is limited compared to other parts of world," said Cagar.

Quoting from a report by the Guttmacher Institute, (a nonprofit sexual health research organization, which some have called the research arm of Planned Parenthood), he said that 98 percent of sexually active Catholic women have used contraceptive methods banned by the church, according to a recent survey.

The 7 billionth human being is also "symbolic". There could be several of them, born, it seems, in carefully designated places in the world, where it is considered useful to draw the population's attention the fact that the Human population never grown with such speed before the 20th century; for example the Philippines.

It is a less well know fact is that it is never again likely to grow with such speed. The global fertility rate is already decreasing; in the future the population of the world is likely to decline

How many is too many?

There is a debate about how many people the earth can sustain. With both more people and longer lifetimes, humanity's absolute numbers continue to rise, even though the number of children per women has halved since 1950. The absolute growth rate in human population peaked at 2.1 percent between 1965 and 1970, according demographer Joel Cohen of Columbia University's Earth Institute to Cohen. "We're now down to 1.1 percent per year," although that still means roughly 150 babies born every minute.

While the fertility rate is one of the factors putting pressure on the earth's resources some say the real issue is the often unchecked, unmitigated, uncontrollable, and unbridled consumption. In the time it took the population to double, "the economy grew by 15 times, cars by 16 times and fertilizer-use by sixfold." A Scientific American article highlights the role of consumerism.

• The world's richest 500 million people produce half the world's carbon dioxide emissions—the primary greenhouse gas responsible for climate change—whereas the poorest three billion emit just seven percent.
• The average American—one of 312.5 million—uses up some 88 kilograms of stuff daily: food, water, plastics, metals and other material goods.
• Americans consume a full 25 percent of the world's energy despite representing just 5 percent of global population
• The band of industrialized nations combine to waste 222 million metric tons of food per year, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

You are one in 7 billion. What's your number? Click here and then enter your birthday to find your number and compare yourself to family, friends, and others around the globe.

Source

• Reuters
• The Scientific American - Growth rate has Peaked
• The Scientific American - How many people can the earth support?
• Image: www.salon.com