Savaged by fighting, atrocities, and famine, Sudan is descending into chaos, exacerbated by foreign interference, despite the Geneva negotiations.
The deadlock has pushed Sudan into being a “forgotten” conflict.
Sudan’s reality
If this were a film, its script would be criticised for overusing every dramatic device.
Looting, rape, executions, and bombings. The horrors of a dirty war are compounded by families driven into exile, legions of starving children, and a cholera epidemic amidst torrential downpours.
Yet, this is the reality of Sudan after 17 months of war.
The United States estimates that the conflict has killed more than 150,000 civilians.
According to the International Organisation for Migration, 11 million people have been displaced within the country, a figure exacerbated by flooding and famine.
Hunger plagues 25 million Sudanese, more than half the population, while rival armies hinder humanitarian aid.
The United Nations has called it “one of the worst humanitarian crises” of our time.
Humanitarian help needed
In the face of international indifference, humanitarian organisations have called for help and action to “put Sudan back on track.”
“The international community must mobilise,” UNICEF urged this month, arguing that there was “no excuse.”
In France, the topic is rarely discussed.
“Sudan is not within our political geography, and it is more covered in Arab and Anglo-Saxon media,” said Thierry Vircoulon, a researcher associated with the French Institute of International Relations.
“Humanitarians and journalists have limited access; Sudan is vast, and the fighting occurs on multiple fronts. It’s extremely difficult to report on the situation.”
Fratricidal conflict
The genesis of this war is a fratricidal conflict between General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, head of the regular army, and General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, also known as Hemetti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The former is supported by the old Islamist regime and Khartoum elites, while the latter comes from the Arab Janjaweed militias involved in the Darfur genocide two decades ago.
Together, the two generals overthrew the democratic transitional government established after the fall of Omar Al-Bashir’s Islamist dictatorship in 2021.
However, their ambitions clashed, leading to war on April 15, 2023. Their rivalry has unleashed local militias, igniting local conflicts and ethnic tensions.
Initially, major powers failed to grasp the seriousness of the situation.
“No one imagined that this war would last,” said Roland Marchal, a sociologist and researcher at CNRS, France’s National Center for Scientific Research.
“For U.S. President Joe Biden, Africa has never been a priority. U.S. diplomatic responses have been inconsistent, while Europeans have remained passive, following suit but divided.
From the outset, the silence of China, Sudan’s primary trading partner, and Russia has compounded limited the Western response to Sudan.”
Regional influence
This gap has allowed other types of interventions.
The ambitions of the two rival generals are cemented by support from regional actors attracted by the strategic importance of a country located between the Sahel and the Red Sea.
“The situation became particularly complex with the rivalries among nations of the Arabian Peninsula,” continues the expert.
By providing additional resources without facing any sanctions, these nations have allowed the war to persist.
Their rhetoric and calls for de-escalation did not reflect the reality on the ground, further complicating efforts to understand this conflict and delaying any resolution.”
While Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia, and recently Iran supported government forces, General Hemetti has received crucial backing from the United Arab Emirates while also establishing ties with Russia through gold smuggling and the Wagner Group.
“With the involvement of Russians and Iranians alongside the regular army, an alliance is emerging that could reflect international fractures and complicate matters even further,” Marchal explained.
Russia, for its part, is eyeing a naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea, raising concerns within the Western bloc. For now, the entangled rival coalitions hinder any resolution to the war.
“Both sides will continue fighting as long as they have the means, thanks to their allies,” Vircoulon said.
Arms trade
To fuel the fighting, the arms trade is king.
“A constant flow of weapons is sustaining the conflict,” warned Amnesty International.
Despite an embargo, arms are being delivered to Sudan, particularly Darfur, from China, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
Amidst growing chaos, mediation attempts are underway. Since August 14, negotiations have been held in Geneva, initiated by the United States.
However, General Al-Burhan, who leads the army, refuses to sit across from his enemy. Nevertheless, he has allowed the opening of the Chadian border post at Adré, and 15 trucks have recently crossed to deliver humanitarian aid to Darfur.
In Sudan’s powder keg, the fighting continues, with shockwaves fueling regional instability. According to Thierry Vircoulon,
“It’s a fight to the death for power,” a fight that is tearing Sudan apart.
- First reported in La Croix International
- Vanessa Dougnac is a journalist for La Croix International