The Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) reported last Thursday that Trump's support among white Catholics fell from 60 percent in March to 48 percent in April to 37 percent in May.

The new poll was conducted May 26-31 during a week of widespread civil unrest in several major cities, following George Floyd's death in police custody on May 25. The poll sampled 1,003 U.S. residents aged 18 or over.

The findings reflect other national polls showing a general growing disapproval for Trump in recent weeks. All register broad disapproval for his handling of the aftermath of George Floyd's death.

Nonetheless, according to PPRI's findings, support for President Trump is still strong within half of overall respondents in election swing states. His approval in those states has increased to 50 percent from 38 percent in April.

PRRI's poll numbers among Catholics mark a sharp change from a Pew Research Center poll on Trump's handling of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, conducted at the beginning of May.

The May Pew report showed while Americans overall characterized Trump's response to the pandemic as either "fair" or "poor" by a margin of 59 percent to 41 percent, white Catholics approved of his response as "excellent" or "good" by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent. In that same poll, however, 70 percent of Hispanic Catholics said Trump's response was "fair" or "poor."

Earlier this year an EWTN News/RealClearOpinion Research poll showed almost six-in-ten white non-Hispanic Catholics approved of Trump's presidency.

According to the poll of 1,512 Catholic registered voters conducted from Jan. 28 through Feb. 4, 58 percent of white non-Hispanic Catholics approved of Trump "strongly" or "somewhat,". Fifty-three percent said they would vote for him in November or there was a "strong chance" they would.

Trump's approval rating among Catholics overall was at less than half in the EWTN poll. Partly this is because of overwhelmingly negative reviews by71 percent of Hispanic Catholics who disapproved of him. A smaller subset of devout Catholics who said they accepted all the Church's teachings, showed strong approval of his presidency at a rate of 63 percent to 37 percent.

The Catholic vote has largely mirrored the overall popular vote in recent presidential elections.

The share of Republican Party members who identify as Christian fell slightly, with 79 percent identifying as Christian today compared with 87 percent in 2008.

Overall, the share of U.S. adults who identify as Christian has fallen in recent years. Sixty-five percent said they were Christian in 2018-2019. This compares with 77 percent a decade earlier. At the same time, the number of religiously unaffiliated Americans increased from 17 percent to 26 percent.

Source

• Catholic News Agency
• America Magazine
• Image: CNBC.com

"You could view it as the ultimate swing constituency in the country," says Matt Schlapp, a conservative activist and co-chair of the newly formed "Catholics for Trump" coalition. He was speaking last month on EWTN, a Catholic cable network. Read more

A national survey in June by the Pew Research Center showed white Catholics are almost evenly divided in their backing for the two candidates.

White Catholics gave Trump a narrow edge - 50 per cent to 46 per cent.

But Hispanic Catholics overwhelmingly support Mrs Clinton by a margin of 77 per cent to 16 per cent.

Overall, the survey found that 56 per cent of American Catholics back Mrs Clinton with 39 per cent for Mr Trump.

The margin of error was 7.9 per cent.

"To the extent that we can identify a group of [religiously defined] swing voters, white Catholics are it," said Greg Smith, associate director of Research for the Pew Research Center.

Catholics represent roughly 20 per cent of the adult population in the US and they're around two-thirds white.

This makes the white Catholic cohort a significant electoral bloc.

Mr Smith also said that a June 2012 Pew survey found white Catholics backing Republican challenger Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama by just nine points.

But in the end the spread in favour of Romney was 19 points, suggesting many changed their minds later in the race.

The 2016 survey found that weekly Mass-goers are supporting Mrs Clinton by 57 to 38 per cent.

In data not included in the results released on Wednesday, the survey found a racial divide among Catholics on the question of which candidate voters believe would be better able to deal with immigration.

White Catholics say it's Mr Trump by 52 percent to 41, while Hispanic Catholics answered Mrs Clinton by a margin of 74 percent to 19.

"Given how clearly both Pope Francis and the US bishops have expressed positions on the immigration issue, I found that result interesting," Mr Smith said.

Sources

• Crux
• Image: BBC

"The Catholic bishops of the United States offer our prayers that God will give you strength and wisdom to meeting the difficult challenges that face America," wrote Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York.

"In particular, we pray that you will exercise your office to pursue the common good, especially in care of the most vulnerable among us, including the unborn, the poor, and the immigrant."

Over the past year the bishops have opposed the Obama administration particularly over a Department of Health and Human Services mandate requiring coverage of contraceptive services in health insurance plans. They portrayed this as infringing the constitutional guarantee of religious freedom.

The importance of religious freedom was also emphasised in Pope Benedict XVI's message to President Obama. The Pope also said he hoped the American founding ideals of freedom and justice would hold a prominent place in the nation's future.

According to exit polls conducted by CNN, 50 per cent of voters who identified themselves as Catholics voted for Obama, and 48 per cent for his Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Protestant voters were heavily in favour of Romney, with 57 per cent choosing the Republican and only 42 per cent voting for Obama.

Among voters who said they had no religious affiliation, Obama was the overwhelming favorite, with a 70-26 per cent advantage.

The chairman of the Catholic bishops' subcommittee to defend marriage, Archbishop Salvatore J. Cordileone of San Francisco, said election day was a disappointing one for marriage.

Voters in Maine and Maryland approved measures legalising same-sex marriage, and a similar measure appeared likely to pass in Washington state. Minnesotan voters rejected an amendment to define marriage as only between a man and woman.

Maryland and Washington voters upheld laws permitting same-sex marriage that were passed earlier in the year.

Sources:

National Catholic Register

CNN

National Catholic Reporter

Catholic News Service

Image: Straits Times

On June 17, Obama held a slight edge over Mitt Romney among Catholics (49-47 percent). Since then, Obama has surged ahead, and now leads 54-39 percent, according to a Pew poll conducted on Sept. 16.

The poll showed that among all registered voters, Obama leads Romney 51-42 percent.

A report by Religion News Service (RNS) said Obama and Romney are essentially tied among white Catholics, which some pollsters call the ultimate swing group.

Romney on Monday unveiled his Catholics for Romney Coalition. The Obama campaign also has a Catholic coalition.

During the last week of June to July 4, US Catholic bishops held what they dubbed as a "Fortnight for Freedom," with Masses, prayer groups and presentations in dioceses nationwide. The campaign was aimed against an Obama administration mandate that requires some religious institutions to provide cost-free contraception coverage to employees.

The RNS report quoted John C. Green, an expert on religion and politics at the University of Akron in Ohio, as saying that Obama's surge among Catholic voters does not mean the bishops' campaign was ineffective.

"It's not the issue that most middle-of-the-road Catholics are responding to," Green said. He said religious freedom is not the most salient issue for Catholics during an election dominated by economic concerns.

The margin of error for the September survey of Catholic voters is plus or minus 5.1 percentage points, according to Pew.

Sources

• RNS
• Huffington Post
• The Washington Post
• National Catholic Reporter
• Image: AP/Center for American Progress

Religiously-active Catholics are those who report attending Mass at least once a week. Weekly attendance at religious services is the accepted definition of a religiously-active voter in any faith tradition. Studies of exit polls going back to the '60s tell the story of how these Catholic voters lost their loyalty to the Democratic Party, becoming either reliable Republicans or swing voters with a preference for socially conservative candidates, e.g. the "Reagan Democrats."

The Obama Catholic surrogate machine was in full swing throughout the last campaign and well into his administration. Even when concerns were voiced by Catholics regarding Obama's appearance at Notre Dame, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend came to his defense in the pages of Newsweek before Obama's first meeting with Pope Benedict XVI by writing, "Notre Dame awarded the president an honorary degree because it saw the need to highlight the best of Catholic teaching as applied to politics: the ability to open the eyes of those who would prefer to keep them closed, and to open the hearts of those who would prefer not to know the pain that their actions cause. The pope has a lot to learn about Catholic politics in America. Barack Obama can teach him." (Note Ms. Kennedy Townsend did not capitalize "Pope".)

Read more about why President Obama faces hard times with Catholic voters