Bishop John Sentamu, then Archbishop of York, was the clear favourite with the Bishops of London, Liverpool and Bradford among others in the running.

One of the front-runners said to me: "You mustn't believe the stories in the press about bishops jockeying for position. It's more like a group of men sitting around a table, passing a revolver from one to another, knowing that one of them is going to get the bullet".

On 7 November 2012, both Ladbrokes and William Hill suddenly suspended betting on the new archbishop. They had noticed a "very significant move" in the betting towards a rank outsider. Justin Welby, the Bishop of Durham, hadn't even been at the table.

Welby had been a bishop for less than a year, and some of his five children hadn't even moved schools from his previous posting when his new appointment as the 105th Archbishop of Canterbury was announced.

Some time in the coming weeks, Welby will announce that he is leaving Lambeth Palace after 12 turbulent years in the post.

The law requires him to step down by 6 January 2026 when he will be 70 - though an extension of 12 months would be possible in exceptional circumstances. Soon the betting is likely to open on his successor.

What the Archbishop of Canterbury does

The winner (or loser) in the contest (for the archbishop's role) will inherit not one but four jobs.

He or she will be the Ordinary of the Diocese of Canterbury, the Primate of All England, a member of the House of Lords and the spiritual head of the worldwide Anglican Communion.

A review of the roles in 2001 by Lord (Douglas) Hurd concluded that the job had become unmanageable and needed to be reformed.

His main suggestion was that the Archbishop of Canterbury should be freed up to concentrate on his role as leader of the Anglican Communion around the world, with the Archbishop of York leading on matters in the UK.

Welby might have enjoyed that role. Insiders say that he is rarely caught smiling except when he is out of the country. But none of Lord Hurd's proposals were implemented. As a result, Justin Welby has looked exhausted and stressed for most of his years in office.

Part of the problem is that although the archbishop has considerable convening power and a public voice that can garner headlines positive and negative, he has almost no execu­tive power in the Church.

There's no such thing as an archiepiscopal encyclical letter. The vast majority of Anglican worshippers live outside the UK, but the Archbishop of Canterbury can't even tell other English bishops what to do, let alone those in the rest of the world.

Welby's successor

Some time in the next 12 months, a Crown Nominations Commission (CNC) will convene to choose Welby's successor. It will be made up of the Archbishop of York with another senior bishop, and six members of the General Synod.

They will be joined by three representatives of the Canterbury Diocese and five overseas members chosen from the regions of the worldwide communion.

At Welby's ­initiative, there has been a reduction in the representation from Canterbury and an increase in those from the rest of the world - a move aimed to give the international role greater legitimacy. There will also be a voting chair appointed by Sir Keir Starmer.

In the end, the CNC will make its recommendation to the prime minister who will convey it to the King, who makes the appointment.

In theory, the next archbishop could come from outside England - but that's not likely.

However godly and competent a candidate might be, bringing a bishop in from Africa or the United States and bestowing an automatic seat in the House of Lords together with the job of crowning a future monarch wouldn't help the Church's credibility.

Age matters. If the next archbishop is to have time to make an impact, he or she probably needs to be some fifty years of age.

That narrows the field considerably. The hugely capable Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell, might be an interim candidate, but he will be 67 by the time the removal vans pull up at Lambeth Palace.

And anyway, he would hate it. Gender matters too. Rachel Treweek, the Bishop of Gloucester, and Helen-Ann Hartley, the Bishop of Newcastle, are hugely effective. But large parts of the shaky Anglican Communion still see women in leadership roles as ­anathema.

Views on sexuality matter

It may be incomprehensible to the majority of the population, but the decision is likely to hinge on the candidates' views on sexuality. Gay sex is by far the most neuralgic issue in the Church of England.

Even a mild comment from Welby in answer to a question by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart in their podcast The Rest is Politics, suggesting that he and the majority of bishops believed that "all sexual activity should be within a committed relationship … whether it's straight or gay", called down the ire of conservative church leaders across England and around the world.

In recent months, the CNC has been deadlocked over the issue and has failed to appoint new bishops in key dioceses such as Carlisle and Ely.

It is hard to see how Canterbury will be any different, especially when a two-thirds majority of voting members of the CNC is required to make a recommendation. Just six voters could block a candidate.

When and if an appointment is made, be it conservative or liberal, it will be hugely divisive.

If we needed an indication of just how deep and personal this rift is, consider the Alliance, a confederation of conservative networks within the Church of England who affirm what they regard as the "orthodox" teaching of the Church on sexuality.

The Alliance has links throughout the Anglican Communion, not least through the founder of the Alpha Course, the Rev. Nicky Gumbel. Ironically, Gumbel was a key mentor to Welby from his conversion onwards, and was vicar of the church that sent him for ordination.

It is highly likely that Gumbel had a significant role in Welby's ­meteoric rise, and it is equally likely that he will play a role in brokering the appointment of his successor.

Part of the power of the Alliance lies in the threat to withhold funds if the Church moves further in a liberal direction. The Church of England may literally not be able to afford to appoint a progressive archbishop.

Which brings us to the figures gathered around the table this time, uneasily passing the revolver. Read more

• Andrew Graystone is a theologian and advocate for victims of church-based abuse.

Speaking at the General Synod in York, Welby explained that his daughter Ellie had dyspraxia; a condition affecting movement and coordination.

Hospital staff suggested abortion if a disability test returned positive results, highlighting the financial burden of raising a disabled child.

Ellie is now 32.

"Before [Ellie] was born, during the pregnancy there was some concern and a test was ordered.

"But it was made very, very clear to my wife that if the test was taken and proved positive, it would be expected that we ask for a termination.

"It was not a neutral process, because they said it's expensive."

He described Ellie as "precious because she's wonderful, she's kind, she is someone who gets cross and gets happy and gets sad. She's not that severely disabled."

Welby has previously stated he does not pray for Ellie in relation to her disability. He regards it as part of who she is.

Support for parents needed

The comments of Welby follow a motion by Ven Pete Spiers, an archdeacon from Liverpool who challenges the notion that raising children with disabilities is a tragedy.

Spiers' motion called for healthcare providers to provide better support for parents of disabled children. He also pressed for unbiased information about conditions diagnosed during pregnancy.

The motion passed unanimously at the Synod, with 312 votes in favour and none against.

The Church of England opposes abortions based on disability and, at a 2013 parliamentary debate, called the law allowing such terminations "discriminatory".

The 1967 Abortion Act permits terminations up to 24 weeks. There are exceptions to the Act for severe disability or risk to the mother's life beyond that period.

The General Synod, established in 1970, is the national assembly of the Church of England. It approves legislation affecting the Church and debates matters of national and international importance.

Sources

Daily Mail

The Times

CathNews New Zealand

The motion came from the Bishop of London, Sarah Mullally.

Last week, the Church's General Synod voted to move ahead with implementing special prayers of thanks and dedication for gay couples.

The vote followed the House of Bishops' agreement last month to commend "Prayers of Love and Faith" for same-sex couples.

These may be used in existing church services and as the basis for stand-alone services, the bishops agreed.

Uncertainty, tension and division

The vote to go ahead with the pilot programme followed hours of ardent debate.

Synod members — bishops, clergy and lay representatives — reportedly became "emotionally charged" when considering the church's pastoral responsibilities toward gay people.

Mullally highlighted the uncertainty and tensions in the Church of England regarding same-sex unions.

There is particular concern over the content of prayers for same-sex blessings, she told the General Synod.

Some synod members said the test might affect the "optics" surrounding the blessings, suggesting that they are weddings in all but name.

Tentative agreement

It was the Bishop of Oxford, Steven Croft, who proposed an amendment calling for a stand-alone services' trial period.

His proposal was carried by one vote in the House of Laity, and 25-16 among the Bishops.

The House of Bishops' meeting in mid-December will discuss the best way to authorise the services.

Mullally hopes the House will also commend the Prayers of Love and Faith for use and will "reflect" on how to implement the trial period.

Once these have been decided, the Archbishops of Canterbury and York will put the plan into action.

Discerning, not dividing

While Croft says he is he relieved his amendment and the final motion had been carried, he is "concerned about the fracturing of collegiality among the Bishops".

He also says the bishops should "attend to" the mistrust expressed by people on both sides of the debate.

Support for prayers and blessings for same-sex unions came from the archbishops of Canterbury and York.

Opponents say once the blessings have been implemented, they would be hard to retract.

The bishop of Chichester wants more study on the idea.

"Like all doctrine, the doctrine of marriage is practical, but it [also...] shows that what we do now is linked to eternal reality. How we use our bodies matters ... the rationale for using these prayers needs far more elucidation."

The Bishop of Lancaster, Jill Duff, also opposed Croft's amendment and voted against the final motion.

Croft's amendment and its "one-vote knife-edge" would make it difficult to implement anything she says.

While the Archbishop of York is concerned the disagreements "appeared to be stretching us to breaking point," he also says "there should be no place for homophobia in our church."

Moving forward - together

A "better way that will help us keep united, help us flourish" is needed, Duff says.

She suggests a "consensus" on same-sex unions akin to the one that enabled the legislation on women bishops to be carried by a two-thirds majority in the Synod.

Mullally is convinced the "difference of views" can be resolved.

"What we're trying to model is how do you ... seek to try and find a place we can occupy together," she says. The process is "iterative", involving listening and attempting to discern a way forward.

Source

• Church Times
• Religion News

Before the address, the Earl of Wessex said the monarch sent her "sincere and deep apologies that she cannot be here today".

"I think you probably understand why, and she regrets that deeply," he added.

He then said on his mother's behalf: "It is hard to believe that it is over 50 years since Prince Philip and I attended the very first meeting of the General Synod.

"None of us can slow the passage of time; and while we often focus on all that has changed in the intervening years, much remains unchanged, including the Gospel of Christ and his teachings."

Read More