The Covid-19 virus pushed 4.7 million Southeast Asian people into extreme poverty in 2021.
According to the an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report presented at the Southeast Asia Development Symposium, 9.3 million jobs have disappeared.
The ADB’s “Southeast Asia Rising from the Pandemic” report says the Omicron variant could make matters worse. It predicts the variant could see the region’s economic growth slashed by as much as 0.8 percentage points in 2022.
The region’s economic output in 2022 is expected to remain more than 10 percent below the baseline no-Covid scenario, the report says.
This will most affect unskilled workers, those working in retail and the informal economy as well as small businesses without a digital presence.
“The pandemic has led to widespread unemployment, worsening inequality and rising poverty levels, especially among women, younger workers and the elderly in Southeast Asia,” ADB president Masatsugu Asakawa says.
“ADB will continue to work with policymakers as they seek to rebuild, improve national health systems and streamline domestic regulations to strengthen business competitiveness.
“We encourage Southeast Asian governments to invest in smart, green infrastructure and adopt technological innovations to reinvigorate economic growth.”
Two years after the pandemic began, growth prospects are brighter for economies with widespread technology adoption, resilient merchandise exports or rich natural resources, the report says.
It points to economies recovering across the region, with most countries seeing visits to retail and recreational areas rising by 161 percent in the two-year period ending 16 February.
At the same time, ADB admits the region faces “global headwinds, including emerging Covid-19 variants, the tightening of global interest rates, supply chain disruptions and higher commodity prices and inflation.”
So far 59 percent of the region’s population was fully vaccinated.
The ADB would like to see an improvement in this.
“Health investments can boost economic growth by increasing labour participation and productivity,” it said. “Southeast Asia’s economic growth could rise 1.5 percentage points if health spending in the region reaches about 5.0 percent of gross domestic product, compared with 3.0 percent in 2021.”
Some analysts say ADBs outlook seems overly optimistic.
“If you look at the figures and what individual governments have said, these numbers do appear on the low side,” says one analyst who declined to be named.
“Southeast Asia has a population of more than 650 million while Cambodia has a population of about 17 million, yet some of Cambodia’s projections were high compared with ADB numbers,” he says.
Last July the Cambodian government said six million Cambodians employed in the informal sector had lost or would lose their jobs due to the pandemic.
Source
- UCA News
- Image: IVolunteer International
