Exit polls conducted by the Washington Post, NBC News and the Associated Press reveal that Trump claimed roughly 56% of the Catholic vote compared to Harris' 41%, a 15-point lead in key swing states.

According to the Washington Post, this outcome marks a notable departure from the 2020 election where Trump led Joe Biden among Catholic voters by only five points.

Trump's ability to gain traction among Catholics reflects an appeal to voters with traditional values, particularly on abortion and immigration.

The Associated Press VoteCast poll shows that 90% of voters who believe abortion should be illegal in most or all cases supported Trump. In comparison, Harris retained 69% of voters in favour of more liberal abortion policies.

Additionally, Trump held a 25-point lead among Catholics on immigration and a 19-point lead on the economy, topics that resonated with a demographic historically split between the two main parties.

Generational shift

According to Massimo Faggioli, professor of Historical Theology at Villanova University, Trump's strong support among Catholics represents a generational shift.

"The cultural and ethnic diversification of American Catholics does not mean they automatically align with the 'diversity party'" he explained.

"There are fewer Catholics in the USA that look like Biden and (former Speaker of the House Nancy) Pelosi" Faggioli argued.

Faggioli also noted that Trump reached out to Catholics in the country "in a way that the Harris-Walz campaign did not". For instance, Donald Trump chose a Catholic convert as Vice-President, JD Vance.

Ideological rifts

Looking ahead, some analysts speculate on the broader implications of a second Trump presidency for US Catholics.

Faggioli predicts further ideological rifts within the Catholic community, with debates likely to centre on immigration, climate change and other social issues.

The response of US bishops to Trump's policies will be closely observed, especially given their past criticisms of Biden's stance on abortion.

According to the Washington Post poll, non-Catholic Christians also voted in strong numbers for Trump (62%). On the other hand, Jews (79%), other believers (60%) and non-religious (72%) supported Harris.

Sources

Catholic News Agency

La Croix International

CathNews New Zealand

The poll, conducted September 12-19, shows Biden continues to face challenges in garnering support among Catholic voters in the run-up to Election Day on November 8. In particular, the poll indicates waning support for the president among Hispanic Catholic voters, traditionally a strong source of support for the Democratic Party.

Among other highlights of the poll, Catholic voters rank inflation and the economy as the most critical issues facing the country. Most say they are very concerned about the state of education, especially after the lockdowns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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According to the survey conducted by AP, of the Catholics who voted, 50% supported Trump, while 49% supported Biden.

Ahead of the election, the rival campaigns targeted Catholics with ardent appeals to vote based on their faith.

Trump supporters said faithful Catholics should not vote for Biden because he supported abortion rights. Biden backers said Trump is too divisive and has failed to elevate social justice issues that are part of Catholic teaching.

Michael Wear, a past faith adviser to former President Barack Obama, said he saw signs that the Biden campaign's focused outreach to religious had paid off. Biden would be just the second Catholic president after John F. Kennedy.

Michael New is an abortion opponent who teaches social research at the Catholic University of America. He said Trump's opposition to abortion likely attracted some Catholic voters even if they disagreed with him on other issues.

This year, Catholic voters accounted for 22% of the electorate, and there was a sharp rift within their ranks by race and ethnicity.

Among white Catholics, 57% backed Trump, and 42% backed Biden, according to AP VoteCast. In 2016, Trump won 64% of white Catholics, and Clinton won 31%, according to Pew Research Center voter analysis.

Among Hispanic Catholics, VoteCast shows 67% backed Biden, and 32% backed Trump.

"The election results show that the Catholic Church is as divided as our nation, but the real divide is race and ethnicity, not theology," said David Gibson, director of Fordham University's Center on Religion and Culture.

President Donald Trump won support from nearly 80% white evangelical Christian voters in his race for reelection.

Among voters with no religious affiliation, Biden took 72% while Trump took 26%. Other religious voting blocs going for Biden, in line with their previous preference for Democrats.

Sources

PBS