A date for the start of the secret papal conclave to elect a new pope may not be chosen until the world’s cardinals formally meet on Monday for the first time since Benedict’s departure.
Timing is important because Holy Week begins March 24, with Easter Sunday March 31. To have a new pope in place for the church’s most solemn liturgical period, the chosen candidate would need to be installed by Sunday, March 17.
The decision itself may also be drawn out as cardinals struggle to overcome deep divisions and rivalries over who is best placed to get a grip on the Vatican and move the church forward from an era of scandal and intrigue.
“My sense is this could go on a while,” said NBC News’ Vatican expert, George Weigel.
“There’s no clear front-runner. There is also a serious concern at the way in which the bureaucracy is operating amid all of this. It could be a very contentious conclave.”
Church officials could be forgiven for being nervous: The longest papal election in history dragged on for two years and three months, lasting so long that three cardinals died and a fourth resigned before a decision was reached, in 1271.
The most recent conclave, in 2005, lasted only 24 hours – not least because the death of Pope John Paul II was not unexpected and cardinals had been positioning to take over for many years.
In contrast, Benedict’s decision to abdicate appears to have taken most of the Catholic hierarchy by surprise.
Rev. Thomas Reese, author of “Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church,” said, “I don’t expect them to take more than three days. Last time it went over five days was in 1831.”
The Rev. Federico Lombardi, Vatican spokesman, told the Catholic News Service on Wednesday that it is possible the world’s cardinals will not begin meeting at the Vatican until Monday, and a conclave start date cannot be set until they have met.
Lombardi said Cardinal Angelo Sodano, dean of the College of Cardinals, will send out letters Friday formally informing the world’s cardinals that the papacy is vacant and calling them to meet at the Vatican.
Many Vatican insiders believe the timing now points to a conclave starting Monday, March 11.
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