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The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in China has had a surprising outcome – a 25% drop in carbon emissions.
The “unprecedented” reduction in emissions volume followed Chinese attempts to contain the virus. Entire cities have been locked down, highways emptied, airplanes grounded, factories shuttered and millions of people confined to their homes.
Finland-based climate researcher Lauri Myllyvirta has calculated the epidemic’s impact on emissions from real time industry and financial data sources and satellite imagery.
Emissions have decreased about 25% in three weeks, he says.
In his work as a climate analyst, Myllyvirta keeps a close eye on China’s economic activity.
He says reduced demand for coal from Chinese power plants combined with the slowing of production in oil refineries and steel plants have created a decline in the country’s major industrial sectors.
“In terms of global emissions, it’s the biggest story of the year. There’s no question about that,” he says.
He also studied satellite images of China’s nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions – this pollutant is emitted through burning fossil fuels.
“That actually showed an even larger reduction of around 35 per cent in NO2 levels”.
There has also been a major decline in China’s domestic and international air traffic since the COVID-19 outbreak was announced.
Over the past three weeks there have been 13,000 fewer domestic and international flights per day – accounting for about 15 per cent of global air travel emissions.
In total, air traffic originating in China has been calculated to be down 80 per cent since the beginning of the year.
Ann Dale, who is the director of the School of Environment and Sustainability at Royal Roads University in Victoria, says the COVID-19 epidemic raises some challenging questions for global environmental sustainability.
“We’ve got a virus that is spreading more rapidly because of our advances in airline travel. Ironically, it’s also resulting in a decrease in that airline travel.”
This raises questions about how much international travel is sustainable.
“What are the limits and optimal scale of travelling?”
“How many greenhouse gas emissions do you want to consume?”
“Maybe it’s time we started addressing questions about limits and scale on human consumption,” she said.
An economic shock that affects carbon emissions this dramatically is rare.
“What it shows is that emissions are closely linked to economic growth,” an ecological economist at the University of Groningen, Netherlands says.
“Once economic activities decline, you have a reduction of associated emissions.”
Decoupling economic activity and carbon emissions is one of the most vexing aspects of climate change mitigation.
The task of decoupling is complicated by the challenge of lifting much of the world out of poverty while trying to reduce emissions.
Some academics are also studying the concept of degrowth, a school of thought where economic activity is deliberately reduced to slow climate change.
Source
- CBC
- Image: Daily Mail
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