Covid subvariants are stalking the community. It’s just weeks since the Government lifted a swathe of protective measures.
Some people – like epidemiologist Michael Baker – would like some of these measures restored.
Just how any new restrictions might affect just-restored religious practice in New Zealand is of concern. Will it mean a return to the strict preventative measures of the past few years?
The news isn’t great. The Ministry of Health says the past week has seen 16,399 new Covid cases in the community. Hundreds are being reinfected.
People are in hospital. Some are in intensive care.
There were 41 deaths last week. Those who died came from all over the country – north, south, east and west. One victim was very young – aged between 10 and 19.
The seven-day rolling average of community cases has increased to 2,343.
Experts are concerned about two new strains, one of which – XBB – has been dubbed “a nightmare”.
The other subvariant, BQ.1.1, has been detected in the wastewater in several regions since being identified earlier this month. The XBB variant has been recorded twice.
Covid-19 modeller Dr Dion O’Neale isn’t sure what’s driving the uptick.
It could be the removal of protective measures, he suggests.
He thinks new Covid subvariants with slight growth advantages might be helping drive up numbers. Though it’s likely the recent school holiday period may have helped slow the spread, he says.
“With children back at school, it wouldn’t be surprising to see cases rise among younger people and the national rolling average track up more quickly,” he says.
Then there are the cruise ships. They’re back in Napier and Wellington ports for the first time in two-and-a-half years.
They liner visiting Napier is known to have Covid-19 cases on board. The ship’s operator and health authorities are not revealing how many.
Te Whatu Ora Te Matau a Māui, the former Hawke’s Bay District Health Board, says the ship met its requirements for passengers to disembark into Napier.
It was “confident that Covid-19 cases [on the ship] are being isolated appropriately and their contacts managed in line with our current domestic settings”.
Meanwhile, Western Auckland, Rotorua and Porirua have all had BQ.1.1 in the wastewater. No XBB has been detected in samples yet.
The XBB “nightmare variant”, is a recombinant variant. This means two different viruses have infected one person and then spliced together to create a third.
It is reportedly evading immunity.There are concerns booster vaccines targeting the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 versions may be quickly outpaced.
Manatū Hauora – the Ministry of Health, and Te Whatu Ora – Health New Zealand, alongside ESR, are closely monitoring the subvariants’ development overseas and in New Zealand.
Baker says a return to some kind of alert level system could help avoid the worst in future Covid-19 waves.
“We’ve already been through two big Omicron waves this year.
“Each of these waves saw large numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
“If we see another wave rising, which seems very likely … we’re going to see more cases and all the things that go with that.”
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